Case Problem Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Case Problem - Essay Example Such a business case demonstrates yet again how statistics can be used to reduce uncertainty. In particular, simulation modeling enables quantification of events and outcomes with varying probabilities. Previewing all possible outcomes with unknown probabilities of occurrence helps to assess potential costs and benefits. Monte Carlo simulation is one such procedure that applies (Doane & Seward, 2007; Stout, 2007). These parameters require the use of a uniform model, where RV values vary within a given range with no central tendency or standard deviation assumed. For the first step of estimating randomly varying demand, the result of 52 iterations of revenue simulations (see Table 1 below) yields a somewhat skewed distribution with a mean of $540 daily, a median of $542 and a standard deviation of $184. Gross annual revenue before simulating the effect of mechanical breakdown would be $28,109. This is the baseline. Next, we factor in the incidence of breakdowns and the lead time for repair. We employ the RAND function to estimate the probability that the copier will be trouble-free all days of the week (instead of defining as â€Å"6 times the square root of r†). For the first week in the all-year iterations, therefore, the RAND value of 0.487 translates to a probability that the main copier will break down after just three days of operation. That same week, repair lead time is calculated using the VLOOKUP function based on the same column of RAND values. Since RAND=0.487 is lower than the 0.65 cumulative probability associated with two days’ repair lead time, the VLOOKUP function returns 1 day. Hence, revenue loss for the week comes to gross revenue times the proportion of 7 days that the main copier can reliably be predicted to

Society Defined by how it defines Everything Else Essay

Society Defined by how it defines Everything Else - Essay Example Deductive reasoning elicits the idea that this civilization existed near or in the middle of a plains-type terrain. The use of only three terms for terrain, "absolutely flat," "rolling," and "slightly hilly," are evidence of this assumption. With only these terms to distinguish the surrounding area, as well as the lack of terms for "ocean" or any large body of water, it is left unknown as to whether mountains or any large bodies of water are within viewing distance of the civilization. It is obvious that these people could not exist without water and as the need for water exists to sustain animal and human life, and the lack of terminology for any large bodies of water is evident, the people must have cultivated some form of irrigation, or advanced means to collect falling rain to sustain their human and animal populations. The careful dissection of the society's language deciphers the choices of consumption made by the civilization. The people use dozens of terms for grains and other plant-based foods. Wheat alone consists of more than half of these terms. Where it is evident that plants are the many dietary source or means of consumption, the true evidence produces itself by the lack of terms for animals as food. There are no terms for cooked meat, the eating of meat, pork, or other animal products, and there are no terms for the use of animals as clothing. The absence of these terms also produces the idea that the people of this society were vegetarians. The choice to consume vegetables and plants instead of animals signifies a respect for other living beings. This shows a degree of intelligence, supporting the idea of a society of advancement. The interpretation of the development of the society in connection with age is evident in the people's respect for other living beings as well as the terminology used to describe the stages of life. The civilization divides the growth of a being from birth to puberty into seven stages, and from the time of puberty to death, in only one stage. The evidence suggests that the first seven stages are more of a path of learning and enlightenment. Once the person attains enough knowledge and experience in life, that person becomes an adult, moving from puberty into the final stage of life. This mental, societal, and perhaps spiritual development builds on the prospects of laws and an active government. The few terms that are available about government and law submit the belief of a highly developed, intellectually advanced society. There are a few terms that substantiate this theory. There are no words for violent conflict or war. The terms for praise translate as "peacemaker" and "conciliator." Finally, the several terms for leader are plural. These examples show that this society believes that the society as a whole will run the government, and that every member of the society is responsible for every other member. John Stuart Mill's states in his article On Liberty, "Though society is not founded on a contract, and though no good purpose is answered by inventing a contract in order to deduce social obligations from